I have heard it said a few times that the 2007 Twins team is very similar to the 2005 team (in fact, I have thought that myself). The 2005 team had a good pitching staff that got very little run support, and that certainly seems to be the case in 2007. I wondered if the numbers reflected that comparison, and found that the do in some respect, but there are a couple of other seasons in Twins history that 2007 also closely resembles.
So far this year, the Twins have scored 545 runs, or 4.54 runs per game, while allowing 529 (4.41 per game). If they continue at the same pace over the final 42 games, the Twins will finish 2007 with 736 runs scored and 714 runs against. For a frame of reference, the 2007 American League averages 4.87 runs per game, or roughly 789 over a full season. The Twins are currently 12th out of 14 AL teams in runs scored per game, and 5th out of 14 in runs allowed per game.
In 2005, the Twins finished with 688 runs scored (4.25 per game), with 662 runs allowed (4.09 per game). They were dead last in AL runs per game, and 5th out of 14 in runs allowed per game. The league scored 4.76 runs per game in 2005, an average team would score about 771 runs in 2005.
So the short answer is yes, 2007 and 2005 are quite similar. Relative to the league in which they played, the 2005 team had a slightly worse offense, but also allowed fewer runs relative to the league.
There are a couple of other seasons in Twins history that look similar to 2007, both happening more than 30 years ago. The 1976 Twins finished 85-77, third in the AL West. They scored 743 runs and allowed 704. Though the raw numbers look almost identical to the 2007 projections, it should be noted that in 1976, 4.59 runs per game was enough to lead the American League, while the 4.35 runs per game that the Twins allowed ranked them 10th out of 12 AL teams. Same story for the 1973 team that finished 81-81. They scored 738 and allowed 692, were 5th out of 12 in runs scored per game, 6th out of 12 in runs allowed per game.
2007 4.54 R/G (12th AL) 4.41 RA/G (5th AL) AL R/G = 4.87
2005 4.25 R/G (14th AL) 4.09 RA/G (5th AL) AL R/G = 4.76
1976 4.59 R/G (1st AL) 4.35 RA/G (10th AL) AL R/G = 4.01
1973 4.56 R/G (5th AL) 4.27 RA/G (6th AL) AL R/G = 4.28
I only include the 1970’s seasons to show that if the current version of the Twins (or the 2005 version) played in the 1970’s they would have one of the league’s better offenses.
As it stands, the 2007 season is shaping up to look a lot like the 2005 season, not only in run splits, but also in final record and place in the division. I suppose that the encouraging thing is that 2006 followed 2007, so I suppose we have 2008 to look forward to.
Born August 17, 1965
Was an outfielder for the Twins in 1994 and 1995. He had a solid 1994 season but there wasn’t much room for him when Marty Cordova came along in 1995. If the Twins could have known that 1995 was Kirby Puckett’s last season, it might have made since to keep Cole around for 1996. Cole was more famous to me as the guy with the fashionable eye wear, shown off over the years on his baseball cards.